Academic process simulation · discrete-event, Prosimos

WF-21 · CE/CME Programme Lifecycle and Certificate Issuance: what the process does under load

The process model beside the controlled document (WF-21.process.yaml) states one performer per step, the decision branches and their loops, a duration per step, the resource pool and its calendar. A scenario is a named change to that model. Each row below is the same process with one thing changed.

Read the numbers as a shape, not a forecast. Every duration in this model is an estimate (WF-21 v0.1 section 10 service standards; portfolio size assumed at about 100 activities a year, 2026-09-18). The arrival rate is an estimate. Nothing on this page is measured; the first calibration replaces the arrival rate with last year's count of cases and the durations with event timestamps from the platform. Results are the mean of 5 runs of 400 cases each.

Scenarios

Scenario	Cycle time, mean days	Median	90th percentile	Waiting, days per case	Work, hours per case	Cases reaching the last step	Busiest role, utilisation
baseline Baseline: the model as stated in the document	240	242	327	122	95.3	100%	Accreditation Officer 75%
attendance-platform Attendance captured by registration scan, so verification is a check rather than a reconstruction	232	233	319	115	92.3	100%	Accreditation Officer 73%

Cycle time counts calendar days from the trigger to the case's end, including cases closed early (declined, rejected, never resubmitted), which is why the mean can sit below the median. Waiting is time a case spends queued for a person; work is the time people spend on it.

Baseline: who is busy

Role	Headcount in the model	Utilisation
Accreditation Officer	1	75%
CE/CME Lead	1	73%
Data Steward	1	62%
Finance / Contracts	2	19%
Course Faculty	20	16%
Programme Director	3	0%
Quality and IQA	1	0%

Baseline: where a case waits

Step	Times performed per run	Average wait before the step, days	Average work, hours
1. Assess the practice gap and define the need	400	47.3	8.0
2. Take and record the channel routing decision	400	48.8	1.0
3. Obtain accreditation or credit approval	400	8.2	6.2
4. Select faculty and develop content	443	0.6	24.9
5. Collect and mitigate conflict-of-interest declarations	443	0.6	3.0
6. Contract with the client	157	0.1	11.9
7. Deliver the activity	400	0.0	8.0
8. Verify attendance by name	423	2.2	2.0
9. Collect participant evaluation	400	1.9	2.0
10. Issue certificates	400	7.8	3.0
11. Register the activity where it qualifies	400	2.3	1.5
12. Reconcile and release to WF-26	400	2.4	2.0

Files

Simulation model: WF-21.bpmn (plain BPMN 2.0 for the simulator). Executable model: exec/WF-21.bpmn (BPMN 2.0, isExecutable, FEEL conditions, potential owners). Scenario parameter files (Prosimos):

Re-run: python3 Site/run_simulations.py WF-21 after pip install prosimos pyyaml. Results are committed as data under Simulator/process/results/ because the site build does not install the simulator.