OBEF Scenario Lab

Presets

Decisions

Capture: share of real activity that gets registered

Baseline values (estimates; edit when known)

Scoring assumption

Band to score mappingUnpublished by MoHESR. Piecewise-linear across four 25-point bands is the working assumption; the others show how much the answer depends on it.

Unsubmitted KPIThe guide states no rule. Zero is the conservative reading.

Trajectory. Rolling windows mean a decision taken in year one reaches full value in year three; the transition provision for a newly mandatory placement is the exception.

Marginal points in year three: what each active decision is worth given everything else that is on. Decisions interact, so the bars do not sum to the total. A zero is informative: the transition provision only matters in years one and two, and two community events add nothing when their weight would have gone to academic events that already score 100.

Per KPI, year three

KPI	Weight	Value	Against anchors	Score	Effective weight	Points	State

Bullet bars: the four bands from Appendix A, the green mark is the projected value, the black line is the top anchor. Effective weight includes redistribution from binary KPIs that are off.

What this is not. It is not a forecast of the Ministry's number. The band-to-score mapping is assumed, the baseline values are estimates, and the Ministry-computed KPIs (1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 2.4, 2.6, 3.1, 4.1, 4.2, 5.1) move only through the levers IoL actually has. Use it to rank decisions, not to promise a score.